Sea level rise remains a critical issue for coastal communities, and recent data from the latest US government's Sea Level Explorer tool, powered by NASA satellites, has provided new insights into past trends and future projections for Santa Monica. As 2024 comes to a close, the data reveals that the sea level in Santa Monica has risen 6 centimeters since 1993, a change largely driven by human-caused climate change and local factors.

This data, derived from NASA satellite altimetry, accounts for the movement of nearby land, offering a comprehensive look at relative sea level changes. Seasonal fluctuations and events such as El Niño also contribute to yearly variations, but the long-term upward shift is undeniable. As the report explains, “In places where sea level is rising, there is an upward shift as the years go by. This change in sea level over the years is caused mainly by human-caused climate change and other local factors.”

Future Projections: A Rising Tide

Looking ahead, the future trajectory of sea level rise depends on global emissions scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which represents a middle-of-the-road emissions path, Santa Monica's sea level is projected to rise 13 centimeters between 2020 and 2050. The range of this projection falls between 11 and 17 centimeters, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in climate modeling.

Santa Monica Sea Level Rise Since 1993

Comparatively, the 6-centimeter rise recorded from 1993 to the present highlights an accelerating trend. The Sea Level Explorer emphasizes that, “The likely ranges for each scenario can also be displayed,” helping communities prepare for both moderate and extreme possibilities. Notably, under this scenario, there is a 3% chance that global sea level rise could exceed 1 meter by 2100, underscoring the need for proactive mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Seasonal and Long-Term Patterns

The data also reveals an annual cycle of sea level fluctuations driven by natural phenomena such as tides and seasonal changes. These short-term variations are superimposed on a steadily rising baseline. The tool notes, “Sea level goes up and down throughout the year from things like tides and changes in seasons. Some years may also be higher than others due to natural fluctuations from things like El Niño.”

As the bold red line tracking sea level rise suggests, Santa Monica is likely to see continued increases over the coming decades. “In places where sea level is currently rising, the red line will likely continue to rise higher in the future,” the report states.

Preparing for a Rising Ocean

The projected 13-centimeter rise in sea level over the next three decades may seem modest, but it adds to the cumulative impacts of climate change, including increased flooding and coastal erosion. With new tools providing clearer insights into both historical trends and future risks, Santa Monica and similar coastal cities are better equipped to plan for a resilient future.

For now, the message is clear: sea levels are rising, and the pace is accelerating. As the report warns, emissions levels will play a critical role in determining how much higher the waters will climb by the end of the century.