California tourism forecast: Growth in visitation and spending through 2028
California’s tourism industry is steadily rebounding, with new projections highlighting a strong five-year outlook.
According to data from the VisitCalifornia.com, CA's official travel website, total travel spending in the state was forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2024, reaching $155.2 billion. Visitation is expected to increase by 2%, adding 5.4 million trips for a total of 269.2 million. These gains reflect a recovery that began post-pandemic and continues to gain momentum, bolstered by international travel growth.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
California’s tourism industry has undergone significant shifts in recent years, as highlighted in the historical data:
- Visitation Volume: Total visitation dropped sharply during the pandemic, falling from 269 million trips in 2019 to just 169 million in 2020—a 37% decline. Recovery accelerated in 2021 with a 47% year-over-year increase, but visitation plateaued at around 264 million by 2023. The 2024 forecast anticipates a return to slow but steady growth, with a projected total of 269.2 million trips by year’s end.
- Tourism Spending: Travel spending mirrored this trend, plummeting from $144 billion in 2019 to $74 billion in 2020 before rebounding sharply in 2021. Spending has steadily climbed since, reaching $150.4 billion in 2023. The forecast for 2024 shows continued growth, with total spending set to rise by $4.8 billion to $155.2 billion. By 2028, spending is projected to surpass $175 billion.
Key Trends Driving Growth
- Domestic Travel Slows, International Travel Strengthens:
While domestic visitation is expected to grow modestly by 1% in 2024, domestic spending is forecast to remain flat. Average spending per domestic visitor is likely to decline slightly, reflecting shifts in travel habits. In contrast, international spending is forecast to grow significantly, driven by a recovery in key markets. - International Markets Leading Recovery:
Visits from India and Canada reached full recovery in 2023, signaling renewed international interest in California’s destinations. Italy and Mexico are expected to return to 2019 visitation levels in 2024, with other markets contributing to ongoing growth through 2025. - Five-Year Growth Outlook:
The steady recovery from the pandemic is expected to continue across all 12 tourism regions of California. By 2028, annual visitation is projected to surpass 280 million trips, while spending will increase incrementally year over year, driven by international demand and regional development.
Economic Impact
The anticipated growth in travel spending and visitation reinforces the economic importance of California’s tourism sector. The $4.8 billion increase in direct tourism spending forecast for 2024 will contribute to job creation, business growth, and increased tax revenues statewide. This positive outlook underscores tourism’s role as a key driver of the state’s economy.
As California looks ahead, its tourism strategy will focus on attracting high-spending international visitors, enhancing sustainability initiatives, and continuing to promote its diverse travel regions. These efforts are expected to keep the state competitive as a top global destination for years to come.
